Hurricane season is about to become active. Are NOAA and FEMA up to the challenge?
This was the scene on Sept. 23, 1973, as Hurricane Eloise struck the Florida panhandle. This photo was taken by my father, Del Stone Sr., from the kitchen window of our house in Fort Walton Beach.
We are entering the heart of hurricane season. Statistically, August and September are the months most likely to see tropical cyclone formation.
And we still don’t know if the various weather-forecasting services are going to be up to the job.
That’s because the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which is the parent organization of the National Hurricane Center and the National Weather Service, suffered significant staff reductions as a result of DOGE cuts.
I was not able to determine how many weather forecasters lost their jobs, but yes, meteorologists were among those who were let go, along with people who fly into hurricanes to take direct measurements from the storm, people who run the weather models to predict a storm’s future path, people who monitor data coming in from remote sensing platforms like satellites, buoys and weather balloons, radar technicians, and other people with mission-critical responsibilities.
What a lot of people don’t understand is the National Hurricane Center must coordinate with local offices of the National Weather Service to make sure people in the path of a landfalling hurricane have the latest information about the storm. NHC figures where the storm is, where it’s going, when it will hit and how strong it will be. NWS figures out what the local effects will be and warns people about the threat. We’ve seen how important that can be when, earlier this year, floods struck Texas, causing massive loss of life.
Also what remains to be seen is how, and if, FEMA responds to a natural disaster like a hurricane. That’s because FEMA also suffered cutbacks, and was compelled to spend about a billion dollars building an immigrant detention facility in the Everglades, the infamous “Alligator Alcatraz.”
So there are lots of unanswered questions as we enter this busy part of the hurricane season, and I think the inescapable conclusion any reasonable-minded person could draw from our current situation is that this regime does not care about people. It cares about money. Because if you took the money we taxpayers spend on ONE golf trip by the president to the state of Florida, we could probably rehire all of those forecasters.
That’s where their priorities lie – in golf trips and tax breaks for billionaires, not us taxpayers struggling to get by in a system rigged to favor rich white men and mega-corporations.
Tells you a lot about their character, doesn’t it?
About the author:
Del Stone Jr. is a professional fiction writer. He is known primarily for his work in the contemporary dark fiction field, but has also published science fiction and contemporary fantasy. Stone’s stories, poetry and scripts have appeared in publications such as Amazing Stories, Eldritch Tales, and Bantam-Spectra’s Full Spectrum. His short fiction has been published in The Year’s Best Horror Stories XXII; Alfred Hitchcock’s Mystery Magazine; the Pocket Books anthology More Phobias; the Barnes & Noble anthologies 100 Wicked Little Witch Stories, Horrors! 365 Scary Stories, and 100 Astounding Little Alien Stories; the HWA anthology Psychos; and other short fiction venues, like Blood Muse, Live Without a Net, Zombiesque and Sex Macabre. Stone’s comic book debut was in the Clive Barker series of books, Hellraiser, published by Marvel/Epic and reprinted in The Best of Hellraiser anthology. He has also published stories in Penthouse Comix, and worked with artist Dave Dorman on many projects, including the illustrated novella “Roadkill,” a short story for the Andrew Vachss anthology Underground from Dark Horse, an ashcan titled “December” for Hero Illustrated, and several of Dorman’s Wasted Lands novellas and comics, such as Rail from Image and “The Uninvited.” Stone’s novel, Dead Heat, won the 1996 International Horror Guild’s award for best first novel and was a runner-up for the Bram Stoker Award. Stone has also been a finalist for the IHG award for short fiction, the British Fantasy Award for best novella, and a semifinalist for the Nebula and Writers of the Future awards. His stories have appeared in anthologies that have won the Bram Stoker Award and the World Fantasy Award. Two of his works were optioned for film, the novella “Black Tide” and short story “Crisis Line.”
Stone recently retired after a 41-year career in journalism. He won numerous awards for his work, and in 1986 was named Florida’s best columnist in his circulation division by the Florida Society of Newspaper Editors. In 2001 he received an honorable mention from the National Lesbian and Gay Journalists Association for his essay “When Freedom of Speech Ends” and in 2003 he was voted Best of the Best in the category of columnists by Emerald Coast Magazine. He participated in book signings and awareness campaigns, and was a guest on local television and radio programs.
As an addendum, Stone is single, kills tomatoes and morning glories with ruthless efficiency, once tied the stem of a cocktail cherry in a knot with his tongue, and carries a permanent scar on his chest after having been shot with a paintball gun. He’s in his 60s as of this writing but doesn’t look a day over 94.
Contact Del at [email protected]. He is also on Facebook, twitter, Pinterest, tumblr, TikTok, and Instagram. Visit his website at delstonejr.com .
Over the past two days I have seen several people online attempt to establish a link between cuts to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the flooding tragedy that happened in Texas on July the Fourth.
These are the facts surrounding that disaster.
The National Weather Service issued its first flood watch on Thursday, July 3, the day before the disaster.
Then, just after midnight on July 4, the day of the disaster, the weather service issued another flood watch.
An hour later, at about 1 o’clock in the morning, they upgraded that flood watch to a flood warning, which would have triggered alert tones on mobile phones in the forecast area.
Then, at 4 o’clock in the morning, they declared a flood emergency.
The Guadalupe River crested at about 4:30 a.m.
As for the number of forecasters on duty, typically on a weekend like that, two forecasters are working. In this case there were five forecasters working.
So, as you can see, there was no shortage in warnings, and no shortage in forecasting capabilities.
I have heard suggestions that NWS was missing some of the people who typically coordinate with local emergency operations, and I’ve also heard former NOAA higher-ups warned that staffing cuts could lead to dangerous shortfalls in forecasting and information.
I have no doubt both of those statements have merit.
But in this case, where it was being suggested – “accused” is a stronger verb – that there weren’t enough forecasters on the job, or that adequate warning wasn’t give, it doesn’t appear to be true that cuts to NOAA had anything to do with the tragedy.
You guys know what I think about that creature in the White House. But politicizing a natural disaster, and placing blame where it isn’t due, makes us all look bad.
Please stop circulating these rumors.
About the author:
Del Stone Jr. is a professional fiction writer. He is known primarily for his work in the contemporary dark fiction field, but has also published science fiction and contemporary fantasy. Stone’s stories, poetry and scripts have appeared in publications such as Amazing Stories, Eldritch Tales, and Bantam-Spectra’s Full Spectrum. His short fiction has been published in The Year’s Best Horror Stories XXII; Alfred Hitchcock’s Mystery Magazine; the Pocket Books anthology More Phobias; the Barnes & Noble anthologies 100 Wicked Little Witch Stories, Horrors! 365 Scary Stories, and 100 Astounding Little Alien Stories; the HWA anthology Psychos; and other short fiction venues, like Blood Muse, Live Without a Net, Zombiesque and Sex Macabre. Stone’s comic book debut was in the Clive Barker series of books, Hellraiser, published by Marvel/Epic and reprinted in The Best of Hellraiser anthology. He has also published stories in Penthouse Comix, and worked with artist Dave Dorman on many projects, including the illustrated novella “Roadkill,” a short story for the Andrew Vachss anthology Underground from Dark Horse, an ashcan titled “December” for Hero Illustrated, and several of Dorman’s Wasted Lands novellas and comics, such as Rail from Image and “The Uninvited.” Stone’s novel, Dead Heat, won the 1996 International Horror Guild’s award for best first novel and was a runner-up for the Bram Stoker Award. Stone has also been a finalist for the IHG award for short fiction, the British Fantasy Award for best novella, and a semifinalist for the Nebula and Writers of the Future awards. His stories have appeared in anthologies that have won the Bram Stoker Award and the World Fantasy Award. Two of his works were optioned for film, the novella “Black Tide” and short story “Crisis Line.”
Stone recently retired after a 41-year career in journalism. He won numerous awards for his work, and in 1986 was named Florida’s best columnist in his circulation division by the Florida Society of Newspaper Editors. In 2001 he received an honorable mention from the National Lesbian and Gay Journalists Association for his essay “When Freedom of Speech Ends” and in 2003 he was voted Best of the Best in the category of columnists by Emerald Coast Magazine. He participated in book signings and awareness campaigns, and was a guest on local television and radio programs.
As an addendum, Stone is single, kills tomatoes and morning glories with ruthless efficiency, once tied the stem of a cocktail cherry in a knot with his tongue, and carries a permanent scar on his chest after having been shot with a paintball gun. He’s in his 60s as of this writing but doesn’t look a day over 94.
Contact Del at [email protected]. He is also on Facebook, twitter, Pinterest, tumblr, TikTok, and Instagram. Visit his website at delstonejr.com .
Image by NOAA.
May 15 marks the beginning of hurricane season in North America, and my concern is that this year will serve to illustrate the disservice provided to the residents of the Gulf of Mexico coastline and the Eastern Seaboard by the Trump regime.
Hurricane season typically runs from June 1 to November 30, but due to the unusual number of storms forming in May, the National Hurricane Center has begun to post its daily tropical weather updates starting on May 15.
This is a direct result of climate change, something Donald Trump has dismissed as a hoax.
Today, storms are forming in May. I expect the day will come when hurricanes form every month of the year.
Additionally, the number of storms forming is increasing. The ferocity of storms is increasing. Episodes of rapid intensification are increasing. Hurricanes are moving more slowly and producing more intense rainfall.
These changes are a result of climate change.
I know as sure as I’m sitting here that some people will, as Trump has, deny the reality of climate change. I encourage you not to listen to them. Climate change is real, it’s happening, and human beings are causing it.
This year is expected to be a more active hurricane season, a condition that has existed since 1995, when virtually every season became hyperactive. What isn’t known is the quality of forecasting this year.
The Trump regime, and Elon Musk, cut 1,300 jobs from the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration, parent agency of the National Hurricane Center. We don’t know if those cuts will affect the accuracy of hurricane forecasts, but officials say the number of recon flights into storms will most likely be reduced, and that’s how we get the best data.
We also don’t know how the government will respond to a hurricane disaster. That’s because the Trump regime and Musk have cut hundreds of jobs from FEMA. Will the agency be able to handle a disaster like Hurricane Ivan? We don’t know.
Additionally, if you live in Florida and use the state-provided pool for windstorm insurance, you should be aware the state is one strong hurricane away from insolvency. There may not be any money for you to repair your house.
My advice to anybody living along the Gulf of Mexico coastline and the Eastern Seaboard is to be prepared. Have your evacuation plans in place, and your supplies on hand – water, food, medications and batteries sufficient to last you several days should you be without electricity or transportation.
Climate change is real, and the storms are coming.
About the author:
Del Stone Jr. is a professional fiction writer. He is known primarily for his work in the contemporary dark fiction field, but has also published science fiction and contemporary fantasy. Stone’s stories, poetry and scripts have appeared in publications such as Amazing Stories, Eldritch Tales, and Bantam-Spectra’s Full Spectrum. His short fiction has been published in The Year’s Best Horror Stories XXII; Alfred Hitchcock’s Mystery Magazine; the Pocket Books anthology More Phobias; the Barnes & Noble anthologies 100 Wicked Little Witch Stories, Horrors! 365 Scary Stories, and 100 Astounding Little Alien Stories; the HWA anthology Psychos; and other short fiction venues, like Blood Muse, Live Without a Net, Zombiesque and Sex Macabre. Stone’s comic book debut was in the Clive Barker series of books, Hellraiser, published by Marvel/Epic and reprinted in The Best of Hellraiser anthology. He has also published stories in Penthouse Comix, and worked with artist Dave Dorman on many projects, including the illustrated novella “Roadkill,” a short story for the Andrew Vachss anthology Underground from Dark Horse, an ashcan titled “December” for Hero Illustrated, and several of Dorman’s Wasted Lands novellas and comics, such as Rail from Image and “The Uninvited.” Stone’s novel, Dead Heat, won the 1996 International Horror Guild’s award for best first novel and was a runner-up for the Bram Stoker Award. Stone has also been a finalist for the IHG award for short fiction, the British Fantasy Award for best novella, and a semifinalist for the Nebula and Writers of the Future awards. His stories have appeared in anthologies that have won the Bram Stoker Award and the World Fantasy Award. Two of his works were optioned for film, the novella “Black Tide” and short story “Crisis Line.”
Stone recently retired after a 41-year career in journalism. He won numerous awards for his work, and in 1986 was named Florida’s best columnist in his circulation division by the Florida Society of Newspaper Editors. In 2001 he received an honorable mention from the National Lesbian and Gay Journalists Association for his essay “When Freedom of Speech Ends” and in 2003 he was voted Best of the Best in the category of columnists by Emerald Coast Magazine. He participated in book signings and awareness campaigns, and was a guest on local television and radio programs.
As an addendum, Stone is single, kills tomatoes and morning glories with ruthless efficiency, once tied the stem of a cocktail cherry in a knot with his tongue, and carries a permanent scar on his chest after having been shot with a paintball gun. He’s in his 60s as of this writing but doesn’t look a day over 94.
Contact Del at [email protected]. He is also on Facebook, twitter, Pinterest, tumblr, TikTok, and Instagram. Visit his website at delstonejr.com .