It’s not about saving the Earth; it’s about saving ourselves

My post yesterday about global warming and natural variability inspired an interesting conversation about climate change and the future of Earth, one I’d like to follow up on.

So what’s the big deal about global warming?

First, a few facts about the sun.

Katina mentioned the sun would become a supernova, blasting away the solar system in a convulsion of fusion fury. Many people believe that, but there’s no need for concern. The sun doesn’t have the mass to become a supernova. Right now the sun is spinning through space, happily fusing hydrogen into helium. One day the sun will run out of hydrogen and its core will contract, raising internal pressures sufficient to fuse helium. The outer layer of the sun will expand, perhaps overtaking Earth’s orbit. But when a sufficient amount of the helium is fused (into carbon) the sun will collapse into what astronomers call a white dwarf.

A supernova, on the other hand, requires a star much more massive than the sun. When such a star burns up its helium, the core contracts and pressures rise sufficiently to “burn” carbon, transforming the star into an onion made up of layers of other elements with iron at its core. If the pressure maintaining these shells fails, the star collapses into itself, usually in a couple of seconds, generating a tremendous concentration of pressure that results in the explosion we associate with a supernova. But again, such an event requires much more mass than what our sun possesses.

Nova or supernova is a moot issue, as life on Earth should become impossible in about 800 million years, some astronomers estimate. As the sun uses up its hydrogen and starts burning helium, it will shine brighter and expand. The Earth will become too hot and too saturated with radiation for life to exist. So use your time wisely – that 800 million years will be here before you know it!

As for global warming, the issue isn’t about “saving the planet.” The Earth will roll along just fine, with or without us. The planet has been through worse disasters than a bit of a rise in atmospheric CO2.

As other folks pointed out, sea level, atmospheric carbon dioxide and mean global temperatures have been higher many times in the past. Much of that was the result of variability in solar output, vulcanism, asteroid collisions, slight changes in the Earth’s axis of rotation, and even perturbations in the Earth’s orbit. Oh, and life itself can affect climate. So it’s not as if we haven’t seen this before.

This time, however, it’s happening much faster than it should. In fact, if natural variability were taken into account, Earth should be cooling, not heating.

Also, it’s a documented fact that atmospheric greenhouse gases are increasing, and scientists can look at the isotopic signatures of those gases to see where they’re coming from. They are coming from us.

So while it’s not ironclad, there’s pretty good reason to believe human activity, from the burning of fossil fuels to deforestation, is the major culprit behind global warming.

As I said, come what may the Earth will roll along just fine no matter happens. So the issue is not about “saving the Earth.”

It’s about saving ourselves.

Right now we enjoy a standard of living unparalleled in the past. You may not believe that, but it’s true. But that standard of living is supported by an incredibly fragile infrastructure of energy, technology, transportation, and, at the heart of it, climate. Will that standard of living change as a result of global warming?

Think about. Many of our major centers of commerce are located on coastlines. Will rising sea levels imperil those centers, disrupting the economies of First World nations, which then disrupts the global economy?

Will changing climate shift the zone of arable land to other parts of the world? Right now the U.S. is self-sufficient in its production of food. If that changes, and we must start importing food, will we find nations or regimes willing to sell us what they grow?

Will we have access to fresh water? There’s good reason to believe the disaster in Syria is nothing more than a “water war.” Will nations fight over access to water? Will refugees from arid nations overwhelm those that aren’t?

Will the oceans become so acidic the food chain is disrupted, leaving a significant portion of humanity without food?

Will extreme weather events destroy the insurance industry? Stop and think: Two bad hurricane years caused insurors to leave Florida. If it’s happening everywhere, and all the time, what will the insurance industry do? And what will we do without insurance?

Will invasive species head north? Already here in Fort Walton Beach we’ve seen several new kinds of plants, birds and reptiles which in some cases have outcompeted native species. Some of them arrived naturally; others didn’t. And by “species” I don’t limit this migration to more sophisticated, vascular organisms. What about bacteria and viruses? How will the Southeast fare with malaria running rampant?

The bottom line: There are any number of social, economic, political and security reasons to be concerned about global warming.

It isn’t just about politics. I understand the conservative reluctance to embrace global warming – it sounds like baloney spouted by extremist environmental organizations, movie stars and leftist politicians.

Except the folks talking about warming are scientists, not just extremists and movie stars. And scientists have been talking about global warming and its connection to human activity since the late 1800s. Sure, sure, there were predictions of a new ice age, but in every conversation somebody takes a contrarian view. For what it’s worth, Dr. Jeff Masters of The Weather Underground went back and tallied the number of peer-reviewed papers about climate change presented in the 20th century and discovered that even during the so-called ice age scare, the vast majority of papers warned of warming, not cooling.

So these are some of the issues people need to think about when the subject of global warming comes up. It’s a complicated problem that could affect every aspect of our lives.

Scientists are often wrong, but the beauty of science is it’s self-correcting. One scientist says the sky is orange; another scientist proves it’s blue. And our body of knowledge advances.

I would rather put my faith in science than a shrill, left-leaning movie star … or a right-leaning mope who just doesn’t like movie stars.

About the author:

Del Stone Jr. is a professional fiction writer. He is known primarily for his work in the contemporary dark fiction field, but has also published science fiction and contemporary fantasy. Stone’s stories, poetry and scripts have appeared in publications such as Amazing Stories, Eldritch Tales, and Bantam-Spectra’s Full Spectrum. His short fiction has been published in The Year’s Best Horror Stories XXII; Alfred Hitchcock’s Mystery Magazine; the Pocket Books anthology More Phobias; the Barnes & Noble anthologies 100 Wicked Little Witch Stories, Horrors! 365 Scary Stories, and 100 Astounding Little Alien Stories; the HWA anthology Psychos; and other short fiction venues, like Blood Muse, Live Without a Net, Zombiesque and Sex Macabre. Stone’s comic book debut was in the Clive Barker series of books, Hellraiser, published by Marvel/Epic and reprinted in The Best of Hellraiser anthology. He has also published stories in Penthouse Comix, and worked with artist Dave Dorman on many projects, including the illustrated novella “Roadkill,” a short story for the Andrew Vachss anthology Underground from Dark Horse, an ashcan titled “December” for Hero Illustrated, and several of Dorman’s Wasted Lands novellas and comics, such as Rail from Image and “The Uninvited.” Stone’s novel, Dead Heat, won the 1996 International Horror Guild’s award for best first novel and was a runner-up for the Bram Stoker Award. Stone has also been a finalist for the IHG award for short fiction, the British Fantasy Award for best novella, and a semifinalist for the Nebula and Writers of the Future awards. His stories have appeared in anthologies that have won the Bram Stoker Award and the World Fantasy Award. Two of his works were optioned for film, the novella “Black Tide” and short story “Crisis Line.”

Stone recently retired after a 41-year career in journalism. He won numerous awards for his work, and in 1986 was named Florida’s best columnist in his circulation division by the Florida Society of Newspaper Editors. In 2001 he received an honorable mention from the National Lesbian and Gay Journalists Association for his essay “When Freedom of Speech Ends” and in 2003 he was voted Best of the Best in the category of columnists by Emerald Coast Magazine. He participated in book signings and awareness campaigns, and was a guest on local television and radio programs.

As an addendum, Stone is single, kills tomatoes and morning glories with ruthless efficiency, once tied the stem of a cocktail cherry in a knot with his tongue, and carries a permanent scar on his chest after having been shot with a paintball gun. He’s in his 60s as of this writing but doesn’t look a day over 94.

Contact Del at [email protected]. He is also on Facebook, twitter, Pinterest, tumblr, TikTok, and Instagram. Visit his website at delstonejr.com .